Tuesday, June 30, 2020

“ Market bottom ko time karna mushkil hi nahin. Namumkin hai!”

While COVID 19 affected your health, it also affected your wealth. A shaky economy coupled with COVID 19 related fears meant the Indian stock markets corrected almost 40% in March 2020.

While this was a cause for erosion in wealth; it also provided opportunities to savvy investors to enter at depressed valuations. However , the general feeling of pessimism meant that even people who had money and wanted to invest thought they would wait for markets to fall even furthur so that they could time the bottom.

However, as equity experts we realise it is impossible to time the markets. No one knows when the bottom will be hit. So the best approach when stock prices are depressed is not to stay completely out. It is also not to go all in ( after all there can be a furthur correction!). The answer lies in starting to accumulate to take advantage of attractive valuations yet accumulate slowly so as to cushion yourself from furthur shocks.

That's what we advised investors to do through a campaign that released at the height of pessimism in mid-April 2020. Don't try to time the markets. Accumulate slowly.

The campaign (executed completely in-house using stock footage and visuals) consisted of a TV ad on business news channels and digital/social creatives using metaphors around how market timing is impossible. Care was also taken to stay consistent with the brand personality and proposition ( Think Equity. Think Motilal Oswal)

                                  Have a look  at the TV ad https://youtu.be/6SJVlIQeM-Q






And some digital renditions of the same idea









Since the campaign broke on April 24th, the stock markets have bounced back smartly as can be seen in the chart below. Yet we believe that there is probable pain in the future based on stress on corporate earnings due to the listless economy, COVID19 and geopolitical challenges. 




Hence while things seem to be relatively stable right now; don't rush in. Just as you cant time the fall , you can't time the rise as well. 

So accumulate slowly. Buy Right. Sit Tight

Tuesday, June 23, 2020

MARKETING VERSION C.0

Lockdowns, Locusts & Ladakh . Through Earth, Air or Sea; we are currently living in challenging times. Given this unprecedented stage , would life in a ‘After Corona’ world call for a reboot of Marketing as we know it? Or would it be business as usual? The answer maybe lies somewhere in between. Like any new version of a software; you need to evaluate what works from the past and add some new/enhanced elements to be in tune with the new normal. Here are some aspects to consider.

UNKNOWN & UNKNOWABLE : In stock markets, sometimes uncertainty goes into a completely different dimension of non-knowledge. Richard Zeckhauser of Harvard University calls this the "world of ignorance"or "unknown and unknowable (UU)". A UU world is one where the future states of the world are not known- both in terms of outcomes and probabilities. As in Investing, so in Marketing. Consumers and Marketers have come to terms with the UU aspect of the environment. And that not everything can be planned and accounted for. At the same time having a fatalistic approach is also not the solution. Brands need to continuously arm themselves and their customers with Knowledge to reduce the impact of the Unknown. And act with Agility & Creativity in Marketing to respond to the Unknowable. The Lockdown was in a sense, a trial by fire for a UU scenario. At MOFSL, we received regulatory approvals for our S&P 500 Index Fund . In what was not planned before, we created a campaign on educating investors on the need to diversify investments into stock markets US stock markets(which had low co-relation with India) and helped them execute transactions from home; making it India’s first ‘digital only’ NFO.

PHYSICAL VS SOCIAL DISTANCING: While customers remain at home and would still be physically distant for some time to come, their need to interact with friends, family and brands is palpable. The reason why online video webinars received such an enthusiastic response during the lockdown; even among hitherto digital laggards. Man is after all a social animal (remember Maslow?) and hence has a natural need to interact. This need is fulfilled partly through physical interactions. But when that avenue reduces, the need for substantive relationships (be it personal, professional or with brands) still remains. As an example, stock brokers have seen increased stock market interest and engagement of investors during the lockdown. This lead to a rise in accounts opened and trading volumes. The lesson for Marketers- even if physically distant, you need not be far away in terms of building relationships

DOING BUSINESS - DIGITAL? PHYSICAL? OR…? : A recent online survey asked the question : “Who has been most responsible for your companies digital transformation?”. Choices were : A. CEO B.CTO C.CMO D.COVID. No prizes for guessing the winner! Jokes apart, the COVID experience has made the already ascending trajectory of Digital Transformation attain escape velocity. Doing business digitally has become the norm to survive. But go ‘digital only’ at your own peril. While such experiences are great for DIY customers, new to category and novice customers in high ticket/complex categories may still need advice to navigate through their decision making process; especially in volatile times. The ‘Physical’ experience (eg kiranawala service in lockdown) also provides an essential back up in times of crisis. Customer experience hence would not just be Digital or Physical but “PHYGITAL”. Here Physical interactions = interactions with a human interface (On Phone / In Person / Chat). For eg in investing while there are people who do their own research and decide what asset class, fund, stock to invest in and transact directly; there are also many who use the services of an investment advisor.

FRUGAL INNOVATION: With the state of the economy and business climate in general, spending power of both consumers and brands would be stressed. Brands that are able to innovate by providing better value to customers as well as create Marketing innovations at lesser costs would benefit. While overall, I feel that Marketing activity would remain the same (or even increase), expect reduction in costs of Marketing initiatives. For eg TV production may change (integrating stock footage , greater adoption of on-location shoots Vs people intensive set shoots) and briefs would be for shorter yet impactful TV commercial lengths to maintain media salience at a lower cost

WELLNESS AND ITS IMPACT : Given the health concerns in 2020, Wellness is a theme that would be top of mind . Besides physical , wellness can have many dimensions – emotional (ability to cope with uncertainty induced stress), financial ( wealth protection & creation despite paycuts, stock market falls, layoffs), occupational (skill enhancement; especially in WFH scenarios), social (building substantive relationships), environmental ( save the planet)  and spiritual. There would be opportunities for brands to engage with customers need for wellness on multiple levels. However care should be taken that these initiatives are only where the brand truly adds value. Every brand would be taking customers for a trip on the Wellness Wagon. You better be sure your brands trip is worth it!

VOLATILITY & TRUSTMARKS : In times of uncertainity/ risk aversion, brand Trust is  paramount. While being agile in terms of messaging, brands need to maintain a consistent and constant proposition and product delivery/credibility to build a clear image in an already cluttered (and stressed) consumer mindspace. At MOFSL, despite the stock market fall and current risk aversion to equity, we continue with our “Equity Expert” proposition and stayed invested with the firms money in the firms equity products. This consistency and skin-in-the-game commitment not only reassures investors, it also reiterates the brands belief in the long term wealth creation opportunity through equity investing

To summarise, with recent and ongoing tragic experiences, consumers are looking for beacons of hope. Brands need to be these beacons using knowledge, agility, creativity and a consistent message While staying away from the unrealistic, this optimism is what will help brands connect with consumers. To paraphrase a dialogue from the recently released Kaamyab  Be Optimistic. Aur option hi kya hai!


LET'S GET PHYGITAL

The recent WFH has emphasised the need to transact digitally. However recent market volatility has also emphasised the need for advice while investing. This is especially true for the millions of new investors who have entered the markets and  are susceptible to the dangers of trading without advice. An extreme case in point is here 

As a full service broker, Motilal Oswal differentiates itself by providing not just cutting edge digital trading through its habit sensitive separate Investor & Trader apps ( see film here); it also provides an advisor on call to provide research and advise across the whole suite of investing products. The advisor acts as not just as a market expert decoding reams of information into actionable investing, he/she also acts as a sounding board and counselor-  especially important during volatile markets where emotions can get the better of anyone.

The Motilal Oswal investing experience is available on Click &  Call. Not just Digital. Not just Physical. But the best of both worlds. We call this a PHYGITAL investing experience. 

But isn't Physical experience reducing in terms of customer requirements; especially in lockdown? Why can't all this be done through increasingly intelligent digital platforms ? Firstly when we say 'Physical' it means the convenience of an advisor available on phone/video chat. If you observe consumer buying behaviour across categories, we see increasing adoption of the PHYGITAL model. This is especially true for high value items and where there is a lack of standardisation and need for a personalised experience. Like your hard earned investments where needs are not just a rational( data/analysis/convenience) but emotional (Greed & Fear ) as well.  

You may buy a mobilephone online but when buying a car you research digitally but experience a test drive physically. Both digital wallets as well as cash are considered essentials. Online groceries apps offer VFM and convenience but you also visit grocers to purchase fresh vegetables. Even while communicating; while emails and messages are the norm; we still do pick up the phone and speak to our loved ones. 

The combination Digital transactional convenience with the customisation/relaibility of the Physical experience is what makes PHYGITAL relevant even in today's rapidly changing era. We have noticed this in investing where advisors have spoken to clients and counselled them to stay invested even when markets were crashing in March 2020 ( benefits are being reaped now with the markets rebounding). Or when digital only platforms experienced outages and downtime on high volume F&O expiry day while the on-call advisor was available to place an important trade reliably.

Motilal Oswal is one of the few brokers to offer a truly PHYGITAL experience. This is a result of the technology backbone we have built and the large number of advisors available on call through our branch and business partner advisory desks. 

To make the PHYGITAL proposition come alive, we have created a campaign across touchpoints on the benefits of PHYGITAL investing experience. The campaign has been created by the in-house MOFSL creative team. 

Besides advertising; we have also tried to impart knowledge about PHYGITAL investing in various media ( example here )

Have a look

DIGITAL MEDIA


 
















 






SOCIAL MEDIA








FOLLOW UP CAMPAIGN







 Here is some initial media coverage on the initiative



Sunday, June 21, 2020

The Minimalist Investor

Minimalism as a trend is gaining increasing precedence. 

The original poster child for minimalism was Apple with its 'less is more' products, software and user experience. This article explains their inspiration in more detail


However, there's a lot more to minimalism than what meets the iPhone. 

Minimalism as a philosophy has been there for time immemorial. Ancient spirituality including Buddhist , Hindu and many others have suggested a minimalist lifestyle. With all the complexity and uncertainty around us currently, the Minimalist trend has gained even more precedence; especially among Millenials.

This can be applied to investing as well. 

Mutual funds have over 10 categories in equity and debt each and selecting the right category of a mutual fund can be more than difficult. If investors think equity is complicated - debt is even more cumbersome and hard to understand. The time is ripe to practice minimalism in investing. Index Funds are a category that help investors practice a minimalist approach to investing. They are simple, frugal and help create wealth in the long term. You do not need to select or balance fancy and complex portfolios. Since they buy the Index, you do not need to get into the nitty-gritties of fund manager selection. Also, since they do not charge fund manager fees, they are more economical in terms of costs. And it has been proven that over a period of time ,Index Investing provides returns without having to worry about transient performance.

Just a combination of 2-3 Index Funds is good enough for your equity investing needs. As one of the pioneers of Index Investing in India, Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund has created a campaign to educate investors about the emerging Index Investing category by using the concept of Minimalist Investing.

The look , tone and content of the campaign is ; well minimalist. Have a look.












Here's some initial media coverage of the campaign too